2011 On-Site Weibull / Log-Normal Workshops

Produced by Bob Abernethy and Wes Fulton

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Day Basic Workshop – Our basic seminar includes initial treatment of The New Weibull Handbook© latest edition, and the latest version of the SuperSMITH® software including an afternoon of hands-on computer tutorial (PlayTIME™) covering every type of standard problem every related option. The Workshop is designed to bring the novice up to working capability. Topics include failure analysis, optimal parts replacement, cost analysis, failure prediction, warranty analysis, reliability system models, goodness of fit and reliability growth models.

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Day Advanced Workshop – Consulting – or Model Simulation – The advanced Workshop covers maximum likelihood and inspection methods, substantiation test planning, confidence intervals, Crow-AMSAA models and either time consulting with students on their own real problems or time for system simulation overview. Analysis of real customer problems allows the instructor and the class to serve as a consulting forum reviewing each problem. The students should be urged to bring one or more of their own problems and show how they are applying the new techniques learned. Managers can be invited. Alternatively, time may be devoted to other topics and methods, such as system modeling, accelerated testing, Six-Sigma connection to Weibull, and so on. This seminar is ideal for updating alumni from previous workshops to the latest methods and software. The Advanced and Basic Workshops should be scheduled back-to-back to avoid an additional travel charge, but can be scheduled apart.

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Day Complete Workshop – Our complete seminar features front-to-back treatment of The New Weibull Handbook© latest edition. Each attendee also receives the SuperSMITH® software latest version including two afternoons of hands-on computer tutorial (PlayTIME™) covering every type of problem and every related software option. This workshop is designed to bring the novice up to expert capability. Topics include failure analysis, optimal parts replacement, cost analysis, failure prediction, warranty analysis, system modeling, reliability-growth, alternate fitting solutions, test planning, confidence, and accelerated testing.

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Day Extra Capability Workshop – The Complete Workshop Plus Either Follow Up Consulting or Model Simulation – The four-day workshop includes the complete workshop above plus either time for student presentations of their own real problems or time for system simulation overview. Analysis of real customer problems allows Dr. Bob or Wes and the class to serve as a consulting forum reviewing each problem. The students are asked to bring one or more of their own problems to the workshop. Students get consulting on their real problems and show how they are applying the new techniques learned. Managers are invited. Alternatively, time may be devoted to system simulation tools for building models of any level of complexity regarding reliability, maintainability, safety, spare parts, logistics analysis and warranty-guarantee costs including experience with computer simulation models.

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Day Management Overview – Before or after a complete Weibull Workshop, a half-day presentation to senior managers may be scheduled to provide an overview of this new technology including application to their problems.

Text Box: 1 Day Refresher – Weibull Rally – An extra day may be devoted to updating experienced analysts (Weibull Workshop Alumni or equivalent) on the newest Weibull / Log-Normal technology and SuperSMITH software. This would be scheduled in conjunction with a Workshop at the same facility. A minimum of 8 students is required ($350.00 / student). Rally students have access to the software and receive the Handbook and PlayTIME.

Fees (in $USD) For Weibull Workshops in the USA, Canada and Mexico

	2 Day Workshop	3 Day Workshop	½ Day Overview	4 Day Workshop	1 Day Refresher
8 or Less Students	$5984	$7896	$1330	$9784	$2800
Extra Students > 8	$599 each	$840 each	No Charge	$976 each	$350 each

Examples

Students	2-Day	2-Day / Student	3-Day	3-Day / Student	4-Day*	4 Day * / Student
8	$5984	$748	$7896	$987	$9784	$1223
10	$7182	$718	$9576	$958	$11736	$1174
15	$10177	$678	$13776	$919	$16616	$1108
20	$13172	$658	$17976	$899	$21496	$1075
25	$16167	$646	$22176	$887	$26376	$1055
30	$19162	$638	$26376	$879	$31256	$1042
35	$22157	$633	$30576	$874	$36136	$1032

Included The workshop fees include the complete SuperSMITH Package: The New Weibull Handbook, latest edition. The PlayTIME with SuperSMITH computer tutorial, the SuperSMITH Weibull, Visual, and Ybath software valued at $960 for each student, plus a graduation certificate for each student as well as all instructor travel expenses. Extra students (>8) who sit-in the first or last day only, will receive the Handbook but not the software; the fee for those students is $200.

Site-License For clients that book an additional workshop for fifteen or more students, we provide a current-version site license for the SuperSMITH software.

Overseas Travel Fees for overseas Weibull Workshops increase the above fees for business class airfare.

On-Site Workshop

Advantages Tailor the workshops to your specific needs. We can use your data and problems during the special computer tutorial. We can add, or delete, or emphasize specific topics. The students are invited to bring their own problems to the workshop. The cost per student is about half of the fee for public workshops and there are no travel costs for the students. The New Weibull Handbook is available well in advance to allow study before the workshop. If interest develops to have an on-site workshop at your facility, we can provide more details to facilitate this tailoring. A 2-day refresher Workshop for experienced Weibull analysts is another option. All workshop formats provide opportunity to brief your management with a special overview of this new technology.

New Technology Life data analysis is on the leading edge of technology with new and improved method under continual development by Wes and Dr. Bob as well as others. The workshop is updated to include all available new methods. Examples:

q Failure forecasting is presented based upon constant or seasonal variation usage, optimal parts replacement, and variable production rates. Predictive interval estimates as well as point estimates of future failures are provided as tables or plots, including cost forecasting and warranty analysis.

q Warranty claims predictions include all of the above features plus warranty limit effects on claims predictions. Crow-AMSAA and Kaplan-Meier models are both used for warranty. The software uses the newly available AIAG standard truck histograms of usage.

q The new application of Weibull for controlling production processes is presented.

q Many new applications of Crow-AMSAA plus new goodness-of-fit methods.

q For small sample confidence, the new pivotal Monte Carlo method is best practice for regression and the MLE-RBA method using the justified likelihood function (JLF) eliminates the small-sample bias with MLE.

q Better ways to compare new design to old design, and supplier A vs. supplier B, etc.

Availability It is best to block in dates as soon as possible, since the lecturers are usually obligated 6-10 months ahead. There is no extra charge for canceling more than 30 days before the workshop. Cancellation within 30 days of the workshop will result in a fee of 10% of the standard price for the scheduled number of days and students. If however the number of students has not yet been scheduled, the cancellation fee is a flat $2000 (USD). Contact Wes or Dr. Bob to schedule.

Facilities Needed The customer should provide a personal computer (PC) or laptop with Windows (or equivalent) for each student plus a lecture/workshop room with space for each student and computer. The customer should also provide a PC-projector and a projection screen (or area) at the front of the class. Each student should have 1) a calculator, 2) a ruler, and 3) some notepaper. Computer access is not necessary on the first day.