NOTE: The SuperSMITH™ package includes SuperSMITH Weibull software, SuperSMITH Visual Software, SuperSMITH YBath™ software, The New Weibull Handbook© by Dr. Robert B. Abernethy, plus the PlayTIME™ tutorial booklet.

2-DAY BASIC WORKSHOP

A Weibull / Lognormal introduction. Brings the novice up to working level. Covers analysis of good data, messy data, forecasting, optimum replacements, inspections, grouped data, Weibayes, test planning, and reliability growth modeling. Training includes hours of hands-on problem solving with SuperSMITH software to analyze example data found in the PlayTIME™ Computer Tutorial for SuperSMITH.

2 DAY ADVANCED WORKSHOP

Extends coverage to alternate fitting solutions such as maximum likelihood estimation (mle), distribution comparison, system and mixture solutions, confidence, significant differences, and related models. More time is included for student hands-on problem solving using SuperSMITH. There is additional time for details concerning simulation models or for follow-up consulting on data brought by each student.

3 DAY COMPLETE WORKSHOP

Dr. Bob Abernethy’s time-tested complete workshop for most applications. From the beginning to the end with case studies for Automotive, Aerospace, Electric Power Plant, Chemical & Petro-Chemical Plant, Medical, and every type of commercial product or service. Coverage of the complete New Weibull Handbook(c) by Dr. Bob.

4 DAY EXTENDED WORKSHOP (BASIC + ADVANCED + SIMULATION + CONSULTING)

The complete workshop including both 2-Day sessions above. There is a discount for hosting the advanced workshop immediately after the basic workshop for the same people.

WORKSHOPS HELD AT YOUR SITE

DAY 1 BASIC

· Weibull analysis overview

· 23-minute video short course

· How to do a Weibull analysis

· Interpretation of Good Weibulls

· Interpretation of Bad Weibulls – Cusps, dog-legs, curves, t0, Lognormal

· Extremely small sample analysis…what are the risks?

· Suspensions & sample size effects on uncertainty

· Predicting failures with and without renewal

· Case studies…customer usage…maintenance planning…goodness-of-fit with the ccc’s and the new pve%

· Crow-AMSAA reliability growth modeling…for tracking development testing and repairable systems maintainability

· Weibull Experiments…wire data…classwork problems and solutions

DAY 2 BASIC

· Experimental wire data distribution analysis

· Optimal replacement intervals

· Weibull analysis…improving accuracy, smaller samples, Weibayes

· Weibayes substantiation tests…Have we fixed the problem? Zero-failure testing, sudden death tests

· PlayTIME™ with SuperSMITH™ software…hands-on computer experience solving problems…students may bring their own data for analysis with the software

DAY 3 (DAY 1 ADVANCED) CONFIDENCE + MODELS

· Maximum likelihood Weibull theory and application

· Rank regression (rr) vs. Maximum likelihood Estimation (mle)…advantages/disadvantages

· Alternate types of data … inspection and grouped with probit solutions

· Interval mle

· Confidence intervals

· Are two Weibull data sets significantly different?

· Additional PlayTIME tutorial work

· Dauser shift

· PlayTIME with SuperSMITH

· Time for all students to analyze their own data and problems

· Computer tutorial with typical problems

DAY 4 (DAY 2 ADVANCED) YOUR DATA

· Binomial & Poisson solutions

· The exponential related to Poisson and Weibull

· Kaplan-Meier survival for warranty analysis

· System models – independent modes

· Warranty analysis

· Crow-AMSAA details

· Monte Carlo simulaton…History and Principles

· Monte Carlo simulation solutions

· Example: The Cliff Walker

· Transforming random numbers into real variables, like time to failure

· Example: Ssystem simulation with renewal

· Case Studies: Reliability, maintainability, safety systems models – dependent modes

· PC hands-on simulation

· Reliability and maintainability with RAPTOR and MONTE

· Students receive copies of simulator software

· And/Or time to analyze your data

1 DAY REFRESHER

· The New Weibull Handbook latest edition

· Failure forecasting (risk analysis)

o By part, component, system

o A month, a year, 5 years, 10 years ahead

o Labor costs forecasting

o Spare parts forecasting

· Optimal renewal interval new capabilities

· Crow-AMSAA modeling updates

· Tracking fleets for maintainability

· Classic bi-Weibull and YBath solutions

· New cost-effective test planning

· Inspection data…new methods

· Monte Carlo research…& surprises

· Kaplan Meier survival analysis

· Inspection data

· Warranty analysis

· Modified likelihood ratio tests for multiple data sets

· The latest SuperSMITH software

· Hands-on computer tutorial with your own problems and your own data

MAIN LECTURER(S) EXCEPT FOREIGN LANGUAGE AND OTHER AUTHORIZED PRESENTERS

Wes Fulton is founder and CEO of Fulton Findings™ and the creator of SuperSMITH™ Weibull, SuperSMITH Visual, and several special programs for statistical research such as MonteCarloSMITH™ and BiWeibullSMITH™ software packages. He has 16 years experience as Program Engineer for Garrett AiResearch aerospace systems. He supervised development and production engineering of aircraft flight control projects, and manueuvering fly-by-wire actuation systems. He co-patented the multi-fuseable shaft (a high-performance drive-train device) and is a member of ASME, ASQ, IEEE, and SAE. A lecturer in statistical modeling, he developed the Fulton Factor used in set comparison and originated the concept of assurance that equates reliability and confidence.

AND/OR

Dr. Bob Abernethy authored the first handbook for Weibull Analysis and now he self-publishes THE NEW WEIBULL HANDBOOK(C) which is the de-facto world-wide standard for Weibull Engineering. He has over 30 years of experience with Pratt & Whitney Aerospace and was in charge of the Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability department there. He developed many special methods for Weibull analysis including Abernethy Risk analysis for forecasting, the reduced bias adjustment (RBA) for small samples, and Weibayes estimation for small samples and for test-substantiation. Dr. Aberrnethy is a member of and has been recognized with high honors by several statistical, engineering, and quality organizations too numerous to mention here. He also has some landmark engineering patents in his name. One such patent is for the engines that power the fastest aircraft in the world for over 30 years, the SR-71 Blackbird.

ALL LECTURERS INCLUDING FOREIGN LANGUAGE AND OTHER AUTHORIZED PRESENTATIONS

For a complete list of authorized instructors Click Here. … For prices Click Here.