** Weibull
Bulletin from **Fulton Findings

Return to Home Page -or- E-mail Addresses, Sites and Telephone #'s

**The
Weibull World from ****A****
to ****Z****:**

Benchmarks and Standards,
Best Practice, Biographies, Classes/Seminars, Consulting,
Good Software from Fulton Findings, Handbooks and References, Languages and International Use, Product Support, Skunky
Software Alert, Tutorial . . . *OR CHOOSE FROM
BELOW. . .*

SOFTWARE DESCRIPTIONS:

SuperSMITH(R) Software Suite, SuperSMITH(R) Weibull, SuperSMITH(R) Visual, SuperSMITH(R) YBath(TM)

PUBLICATION DESCRIPTIONS:

The New Weibull Handbook(c), PlayTIME(TM) with SuperSMITH(TM), New Weibull Methods + Video

Accelerated
testing generally consists of increasing some or all of the stresses that control
the length of product life. This is done to produce the same or similar results
as the lower stresses that normally occur, but with shorter overall test times
and lower cost. It often is very difficult to increase the stresses without
also changing the physics of failure. Even after a successful accelerated test
(no significant failure mechanism change) the life data from higher loading
still must be correlated to life at normal load. Dr.
Wayne Nelson, a leading authority
on accelerated testing, refers to many such techniques in his Accelerated Testing book. One source for accelerated testing analysis is SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull software. Weibull life curves for the product, at different stress
levels, can be easily estimated based upon test results. Then the shorter
characteristic lifetime, found at higher stress in the laboratory, is
lengthened to actual service lifetime using this model. No more fudge factors!

SuperSMITH (TM) is the leading Weibull analysis
software. Ours is the accepted metric analysis standard for the automotive
industry, the medical industry, the power generation industry, the hydrocarbon
processing industry, the railroad industry, the aerospace industry, the
computer industry, the communications industry and many other industries and
organizations including the U.S. military and the Federal Aviation Administration.
Classic case studies out of standard textbooks provide ideal benchmarks for our
software calibration. Our thousands of customers demand this high standard.
Such case studies might typically include analysis of aircraft components after
in-flight shutdowns, comparison of new and old medical remedies, and
performance of electrical insulation in power transmission. SuperSMITH (TM)
Weibull software includes several
benchmarks ready to use for comparison and validation. The supplied data values
are easily copied for use in other software. Full instructions are given for
interpretation. Find out if you are using the best software. Can the software
you use measure up? Try the benchmark data and see.

The latest
edition of The New Weibull Handbook by Dr. Robert Abernethy contains standard
procedures for performing Weibull analyses. Best-practice methods are specified
for different data analysis situations. Does your reliability effort produce
the most cost-efficient results and the most accurate results? Maybe you should
be using standard procedures to minimize the work required for the maximum
output. Join the thousands of companies that have chosen The New Weibull Handbook as the standard metric analysis method for their reliability
programs.

Does
your software give you the most for your time and effort? Is it performing at
the highest industry expectations? A conscientious analyst can be selective
with all of the analytical methods available for the computer. There are many
complex equations thrown into software (copied directly from a textbook) that
are practically unusable, or worse … misleading. This technical clutter can be
confusing or maybe even misleading. We recommend picking out a few good tools
to keep handy that have proven worthwhile. The
New Weibull Handbook written by Dr. Bob Abernethy
is the world standard reference for Weibull analysis and provides the select
few best-practice methods. This handbook cuts through the clutter with a
handful of solid techniques. SuperSMITH
(TM) is the only software that is 100% capable of these best-practice
techniques. It is the only Weibull software widely recognized as the world
standard.

Yes/no,
on/off, good/bad, pass/fail all can be binomial situations. The simple classic
formula for the binomial distribution was discovered in 1663 by John Newton (Is
he any relation to Sir Isaac?). If you know the proportion of the time that
each of the two outcomes are expected *and* you know how many samplings
are to be made, you are home free. This most basic of all distributions is used
extensively in quality control applications and in gambling. Another basic
distribution is the Poisson distribution for rare events in a continuum. The Poisson
is often used as an approximation for binomial when the values are within
appropriate limits. Read more about these related methods in The New Weibull Handbook by Dr. Bob Abernethy.

B-value
is the shorthand for *percentile *in the world of Weibull. The bearing
industry uses it as a barometer for rated length of service. For example, B-10
life represents the length of service time allowable with approximately 10
percent expected to fail. B-5 life for the same part would be some reduced
service time with only 5 percent expected to fail. These values are provided in
SuperSMITH(R) Weibull, by entering the data and looking
at the graph. It's easy to get precise readings with the *predict* button
in the software.

Dr. Robert Abernethy is known worldwide for his Weibull
workshops presented in Australia, China, Japan, Sweden, Israel, Great Britain,
Canada and the USA. Retired from Pratt & Whitney Aircraft, he has numerous
awards from SAE, ASME, AIAA, and ISA for his development of advanced Weibull
technology during the last thirty years including the Weibayes
method, failure forecasting and the Weibull substantiation test designs. He is
a fellow of ASQ, SAE and the Royal Statistical Society, and an associate fellow
of AIAA. He received the ASME 1988 Gold Medal the SAE 2001 McFarland award for
contributions to Weibull education. He founded and chaired SAE's G11 Committee
on Reliability and Maintainability. The patent on the J58 engine that powers
the world's fastest airplane, the SR-71 Blackbird, is in his name, as well as
the patent on the afterburner control on the F100 engine in the F15 and F16
fighters. He was a Navy Scholar as well as a Fulbright Scholar to Great
Britain. He is the principal author of the original *USAF Weibull Analysis Handbook*
and the sole author of The New Weibull
Handbook. He has presented his
course, the Weibull/Lognormal Analysis Workshop, all over the world and
continues to teach and provide consultation on Weibull related methods.

* *

Wes Fulton is founder/CEO of Fulton Findings(TM) and
the creator of all of the Fulton Findings 'SMITH software
including WeibullSMITH, Visual*SMITH, MonteCarloSMITH, BiWeibullSMITH, SuperSMITH(R) Weibull, SuperSMITH(R)
Visual and the SuperSMITH package. He has 16 years of
experience as program engineer for Garrett AiResearch
(product line ownership changed several times … first to AlliedSignal and later
to Moog). He supervised development and production engineering of aircraft
flight control projects, especially maneuvering fly-by-wire actuation systems.
He supervised the successful Indigenous Defensive Fighter (IDF) wing leading
edge flap actuation system from development through completion of production
and also developed the IDF turbine engine flow-compensated fuel bypass. He was
program engineer for the F-16 leading edge flap production program and the
X-31A leading edge flap program. He co-patented the multi-fuseable
shaft (a high-performance drive train device) and is a member of ASME, IEEE,
and SAE. He originated the Fulton Factor used in set comparison, invented the
concept of equivalent probability and confidence known as *assurance*, and
developed probabilistic S/N curve analysis. He teaches seminars in Weibull
analysis for organizations such as SAE and ASME.

*E. J. Gumbel*
in the 1920's was the first to seriously investigate extreme values, such as
the 100-year flood level. He found that there were only six separate extreme
value distributions (proven by Gnedenko) and went on
to complete a book, Statistics of
Extremes, published in 1958. It
is now the standard reference. The Type-III-smallest extreme value distribution
is the Weibull distribution. Waloddi Weibull
independently invented and used this distribution, and later acknowledged E. J.
Gumbel's contributions to extreme value research by using his plotting paper.

*Waloddi** Weibull* was a Swedish engineer and mathematician. He invented the
distribution that now carries his name in 1937 and delivered his first American
paper on the subject in 1951. He also wrote a treatise on fatigue testing, Fatigue Testing and Analysis of Results, which centered on the uses of this
distribution. History has shown that his techniques are extremely useful. They
have become the leading methods in the world for analyzing lifetime data. Click
here
to see a very detailed biography of Waloddi Weibull.

NOTE:
See the contents page for schedules and locations of public sessions.

Dr. Robert Abernethy (Dr. Bob) developed the *Weibull/LogNormal Analysis* course over ten years ago, teaching
the applications and techniques of Weibull analysis. Dr. Bob has taught this
course hundreds of times for engineering/trade society conventions and on-site
for business and government with continuous improvements for new research. Wes Fulton
is the instructor approximately half of the time now. On rare occasions both
instructors participate in the same seminar. It can be the best introduction to
Weibull for the novice as well as a solid refresher course for the experienced.
It comes in 2-day, 3-day and 4-day formats. Sample topics are:

*Day
1*: Overview, 23-minute
Video, First Weibull, Good Weibulls, Bad Weibulls, Predicting Failures with/without Renewals, Case
Studies, Customer Usage, Maintenance Planning, Goodness of Fit with Critical
Correlation Coefficients, Weibull Experiments, Classwork Problems and
Solutions.

*Day
2*: WeiBayes,
Improving Accuracy, Smaller Samples, Substantiation Tests, Problem Resolution,
Zero-failure Testing, Zero-one-failure Testing, Sudden Death Testing, Warranty
Analysis, Maximum Likelihood, Rank Regression vs. Maximum Likelihood, Extremely
Small Samples, Inspection Data, Suspensions/Sample-size Effects on Uncertainty,
Experiment Analysis, Least-cost Replacement, Hands-on Computer Use, Analysis of
Student-supplied Data.

*Day
3*: Confidence Intervals,
Design Comparison, Monte Carlo Solutions, Binomial, Poisson, Exponential,
Duane-AMSAA Reliability Growth, Kaplan-Meier Survivability, System Analysis,
More Hands-on Computer Use.

*Day
4*: History of Monte
Carlo, Examples, Random Numbers, System Simulation with Renewal, Case Studies,
Hands-on Computer Simulation, Reliability and Maintainability with Raptor and Monten, Free Copies of Simulation Software.

Note: A
separate *two day refresher* course includes review of risk analysis
through to the latest Weibull technology recently implemented in software.

Lecturers:
Either Dr. Bob Abernethy or Wes Fulton will lead the seminar. On occasion, both
will participate.

Please
contact Dr. Bob or Wes Fulton as
indicated in the E-mail Addresses, Sites and
Telephone #'s section.

**Confidence - Useful confidence methods include:**

- Johnson's Beta-Binomial
- Nelson's Fisher Matrix
- Lawless's Likelihood Ratio
- Greenwood's Variance for Kaplan-Meier
- Binomial for Probit
- Abernethy/Fulton Likelihood Ratio Contours
- Monte Carlo Simulation

Before
putting your faith in published analysis results, be sure to find out how
confidence is calculated. According to The
New Weibull Handbook by Dr. Bob Abernethy
the best practice for small samples (around 10 or less) is MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
based upon a pivotal statistic (pv method) as it is
automated in SuperSMITH(R) Weibull. The best practice for larger
samples using the maximum likelihood fit method especially with a quantity of
suspensions is LIKELIHOOD RATIO confidence. Likelihood ratio was first
made available for PC's in SuperSMITH(R) Weibull. Best practice for larger samples
using the least squares fit method and few suspensions is Fisher matrix. Fisher
matrix was first made available for PC's in SuperSMITH(R). Binomial bounds are best for probit analysis. Greenwood's bounds are best for
Kaplan-Meier (also available first in SuperSMITH(R)).
Many of these techniques are *not available elsewhere* as of this writing.

Dr. Bob Abernethy and Wes Fulton are
available as schedule allows for consulting on life data, reliability and
maintenance concerns. Dr. Abernethy, the principle author of the original U.S.
Air Force Weibull Handbook, has over 40 years of experience as one of the
leading Weibull experts in the world. Wes Fulton, who released the first useful
PC Weibull plotting software over 10 years ago, is a pioneer in the development
of user-friendly technical software and he is the CEO of Fulton Findings ^{TM}.
Both are degreed engineers with many years of experience in actual application
of these techniques, and both now teach Dr. Abernethy's three-day course on
Weibull. They can be reached at the numbers given in E-mail Addresses, Sites and Telephone #'s. NOTE: Dr. Bob prefers that Wes consult
for northern clients in winter, except whenever the client is in Sweden. See a
pattern?

Are you
talking only the language of engineers and statisticians? Or can you speak the
universal language of business, so the people holding the checkbook understand?
When it comes time to renew the annual budget or buy capital equipment for
manufacture, then it helps to speak as clearly as possible. You can benefit by
thinking and communicating in terms of money. If you do, you will be noticed
and your priorities might go directly to the top of the agenda. How? Ask
Paul Barringer of
Barringer and Associates. From what we have seen, he communicates pretty well
for an engineer. One of the techniques promoted by Dr. Bob Abernethy
and Mr. Barringer is determination of the lowest-cost planned replacement
interval. The optimum replacement interval, or best allowed time of service
before equipment is retired and new equipment is substituted, is the one with
the smallest cost per unit time. Another way to reduce cost is by using sudden
death WeiBayes testing as described in The New Weibull Handbook. These techniques are automated in SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull software and provide an excellent icebreaker for an executive boardroom
discussion. But whatever you do in a boardroom, do not confess any technical
ability. We do not want anybody getting hurt.

**Critical
Correlation Coefficient (CCC) and Distribution Analysis**

Dr. Bob Abernethy has developed critical values of the
correlation coefficient for the Weibull distribution based upon simulations
performed by Carl Tarum using MonteCarloSMITH ^{TM} software from Fulton Findings^{TM}. Goodness of fit tests have been
greatly simplified and have become easier to understand. Use of the CCC is best
practice for determining the most appropriate distribution for a set of data
from statistics. Certainly CCC must also be used in conjunction with results
from investigation into root cause of failure to complete the analysis. These
values are automatically included in SuperSMITH(R) Weibull distribution analysis and in the
reporting.

Comparing
designs is easy with SuperSMITH(R) Weibull. It automates the use of
likelihood ratio and provides the amount of difference between different sets
of data. Comparison is not limited to two sets. This technique is useful for
comparing new design to old design, supplier A against supplier B, and
application C vs. application D vs. application E, etc. You can also use
techniques such as likelihood contour comparison and graphical comparison as
requirements dictate. Let The New Weibull
Handbook be your guide to
selecting the appropriate design comparison method.

*
Abernethy, Robert B., *The New Weibull Handbook *(NWH), self-published,
1997. This is the world standard reference for Weibull analysis techniques. The
NWH replaces the original Air Force Weibull Handbook also written by Dr. Bob
Abernethy, one of the leading authorities on Weibull analysis. It contains step
by step instructions for performing a Weibull analysis and related techniques
such as forecasting failure quantity expected, WeiBayes
comparison, substantiation test planning, least cost replacement interval, and
related techniques, with several case studies for each method included. You can
order this from Dr. Bob Abernethy or Wes Fulton or Paul Barringer as indicated
in E-mail Addresses, Sites and Telephone #'s. Price and availability is given on the Main Page.

*
Abernethy, Robert B., New Weibull Methods + Video, self-published, 2003. Seven
case studies in a Powerpoint presentation, explained
in detail with an included Word document, plus a 22 minute video showing 3 more
case studies. You can order this from Dr. Bob Abernethy or Wes Fulton or Paul
Barringer as indicated in E-mail Addresses,
Sites and Telephone #'s. Price
and availability is given on the Main Page.

*
Fulton, Wes, *PlayTIME**(TM) with SuperSMITH(TM)*, self-published, 2003. This is the
computer tutorial for the Fulton Findings(TM) software. You can order this from
Dr. Bob Abernethy or Wes Fulton or Paul Barringer as indicated in E-mail Addresses, Sites and Telephone #'s. Price and availability is given on the Main Page.

*
Gumbel, E. J., *Statistics of Extremes*, Columbia University Press, New
York, 1958.

* Liu,
Chi-Chao, *A Comparison Between the Weibull and Lognormal Models Used to Analyse Reliability Data*, University of Nottingham
Doctoral Thesis, 1997.

*
Nelson, Wayne, *Accelerated Testing*, John Wiley & Sons, New York,
1990. The world standard reference on accelerated testing. This is an excellent
sourcebook for life data analysis. There are many new techniques in this volume
to complement his other standard references on life data analysis. Contact Dr.
Wayne Nelson as indicated in E-mail Addresses,
Sites and Telephone #'s if you
are interested.

*
Weibull, Waloddi, *Fatigue Testing and Analysis of
Results*, Pergammon, New York, 1961.

**Languages
and International Use**

Version
2.0 and above of all Fulton Findings^{TM}
Windows software includes simple language translation capability. Please
contact Wes Fulton as
indicated in E-mail Addresses, Sites and
Telephone #'s, if you want to
have the program translated into another language. New language files will be
added to the distributed software, as they become available. A character or a
brief character combination can be selected to specify currency. Also, Version
2.0 and above recognizes the selection of decimal symbol (either period or
comma) made in the Control Panel setup in Windows. These new features were
added by request from our customers overseas. Version 4.0D and above of the
software allows for input of a new additional language file that has the name
SSLNGLNG.TXT. If languages are not already provided, then a translated version
of the English text file can be renamed to SSLNGLNG.TXT and then input as an
Additional Language as described below. Italian is new for version 4.0D and
must be downloaded (however after download it should appear as the Italiano selection in the menu).

GET A
LANGUAGE FILE HERE. THE FOLLOWING FILES ARE TEXT FILES AND CAN BE EASILY COPIED
AND SAVED TO A TEXT (WITH LINE BREAKS) FILE IN THE SAME SUBDIRECTORY WITH THE
PROGRAM FILES.

French - Francais

German - Deutsch

Swedish - Svenska

Spanish - Espanol

Dutch - Nederlands

Portuguese (Brazilian) - Portugues

Italian - Italiano

After
you download or copy the language text file, make sure it is in the same subdirectory
with the other program files such as SMITH.INI, SMITHW.EXE, etc. Then run the
software program and select the Setup icon (showing a computer) from the main
screen. Select the Language / Currency / Decimal / Time / Date icon (showing
two people talking) and then select L…Language from that menu to get the
language menu. You should see the language file just downloaded listed in the
menu, unless it is a new additional language file. For additional language
files, the file name must be copied to a file named SSLNGLNG.TXT first and then
selected from the language menu as Z...Additional Language.

The
likelihood ratio method for confidence was made accessible by Fulton Findings ^{TM}
in 1990 and is still *not available elsewhere* for easy use on a PC as of
this writing. Since that time, the likelihood ratio technique has been expanded
in Fulton Findings software to compare designs for significant difference based
upon exclusive research conducted by Wes Fulton and Dr. Bob Abernethy. SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull appears to be the only easily accessible and widely used personal
computer software using it for confidence. Many other uses of this technique are
projected. With proper compensation for small sample bias, it is the best
practice available for comparison of groups of data.

Several
data formats and associated methods of analysis are available. They include
rank regression, maximum likelihood, probit,
Kaplan-Meier, etc. Each technique has benefits for certain data formats. For
example, inspections produce data different than tests where precise failure
times are known. This is similar to coarse readout data from imprecise
instrumentation. Grouped data can be handled effectively with either probit or Kaplan-Meier. Rank regression has benefits for
smaller sample size and maximum likelihood is suggested for data with many
suspended values. There are other issues associated with plotting methods and
interval data. The New Weibull Handbook is the best source of information
regarding these different methods and their application. SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull provides all of these techniques that are best practice based upon the
particular data format.

Sometimes
the data collection is less than perfect. Different failure mechanisms can be
mixed together. The mixed distribution model is covered in The New Weibull Handbook ^{TM} (NWH). One technique is to analyze for competing
risk. SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull (SSW) searches for a
competing risk solution from two possible mechanisms (two Weibulls
or two Normals or two Lognormals, etc.) by evaluating
ordered combinations. P-value technology is found to indicate the power of the
mixed distribution model. If the power is very low, SSW indicates a small
probability of mixture. Otherwise the p-value is given along with the four
parameter solution. This level of competing risk mixture analysis is not
available elsewhere. YBath(TM) software originally programmed by Carl Tarum
and now owned by Fulton Findings™ provides additional analysis of more complex
situations including partial populations and competing risk.

Beware
of amateur software from other sources with unsubstantiated mixture analysis
methods. Bad software provides solutions even without reasonable supporting
evidence. You must always take care with mixture analysis, since false
indication of mixture for non-mixed data is common. This can be easily tested.
Feed the suspect software several random samples from a single distribution and
determine the frequency you obtain mixture solutions. If a high proportion of
mixture solutions (high p-values if given) are provided for the single
distribution samples, then the software is not very good. The best procedure is
to perform careful analysis of mechanism root cause to avoid mixing altogether.
Refer to NWH for more details.

**Monte
Carlo Simulation and Confidence**

Monte
Carlo (mc) is a special technique for simulation made possible with fast
computers. It is used as a prediction tool and can provide a reference for
analytical techniques. The pivotal (pv) confidence
method is based upon generating and processing large quantities of random
variates. SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull software uses the power of
Monte Carlo to generate correlation P-Value and confidence limits for B-lives
and parameters such as Beta and Eta. Distribution of the correlation
coefficient and t0 (third parameter in Weibull) for research purposes can be
investigated with MonteCarloSMITH^{ TM}. SuperSMITH(R) Weibull pv
confidence should be used for small samples (around 10 or less) instead of
analytical techniques. The 4^{th} day in Dr. Abernethy's 4-day Weibull/LogNormal Analysis
Seminar is devoted to mc
simulation. For more information, please contact Dr. Bob Abernethy or Wes
Fulton as indicated in E-mail Addresses, Sites
and Telephone #'s.

Probabilistic
analysis is just what the doctor ordered for new designs. The previous method
of using safety margins and safety factors is not good enough any more. Reducing the chance of failure is the real
challenge. That means you need to measure the probability of the applied stress
being larger than the strength for each load application. If you can estimate
the distribution of stress and the distribution of load, then SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull can estimate the probability of failure within your needed accuracy.
This very flexible and powerful technique can also be applied to life
distribution vs. usage distribution with similar results.

For
software questions contact Wes Fulton at Fulton Findings and for Weibull
analysis questions contact Dr. Bob Abernethy as indicated in E-mail Addresses, Sites and Telephone #'s section. All software and handbooks are
guaranteed for customer satisfaction. Most questions are resolved with one
call. Any suggestions for software or handbook enhancement are welcome.

Probability
of success is the definition of reliability. A reliable product intelligently
maintained will provide adequate service life and garner high marks for
customer satisfaction. An unreliable product without proper maintenance is a
disaster. Scheduled maintenance can be costly and should only be considered for
*wearout* failure mechanisms when older parts
are more likely to fail (increasing instantaneous failure rate). Weibull
analysis can indicate whether older parts or newer parts are more likely to
fail. For electronics, generally newer parts are more likely to fail at least
during normal usage (decreasing instantaneous failure rate). This type of
failure mechanism common in electronics is called *infant mortality* due
to the higher probability of failure at the start of service life. Constant
failure rate indicates the *exponential* distribution. Maintenance for
infant mortality and exponential failure mechanisms is wasteful. A better
approach is to apply some sort of screening just before actual usage.
Certainly, this is why we feel better after the computer store has burned-in
our new computer for a few hours before we take delivery. SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull software provides useful estimates of failure mechanism type, the
predicted number of failures to expect, the lowest-cost replacement strategy,
spares requirements, and assessments of corrective action effectiveness. Also, reliability/maintainability/availability software from Paul
Barringer of Barringer & Associates can help to solve complex problems in this
area.

**Reliability
Growth (Crow/AMSAA based upon J.T. Duane's postulate)**

A
technique related to Weibull analysis for evaluating failure occurrence is called
reliability growth modeling. It requires less information than Weibull
requires, but it still can indicate instantaneous failure rate changes. Of 27
different competing reliability growth models, Crow/AMSAA has been found to be
best practice. Dr. Larry Crow took J. T. Duane's postulate for learning curve
modeling and extended the analysis with powerful statistical capabilities. It
is included as a part of SuperSMITH(R) Visual software. There is no need for a
separate program, since this technique simply consists of plotting a straight
line on a log-log plot. Predicting the quantity of failures to expect for
spares ordering and maintainability planning is very easy. The New Weibull Handbook has a complete section devoted to Crow/AMSAA.

**Risk Analysis (Expected Quantity Forecast)**

Estimating the expected quantity of occurrences or
failures in the coming months is called *risk analysis*. Chapter 4 in The New Weibull Handbook covers this type of
estimating. It is extremely useful for identifying a batch problem or for
determining spares purchase policy. It was developed and used effectively by
Dr. Abernethy years ago in response to customer information requirements. Risk
analysis is automated in SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull software and is *not available elsewhere* as of this writing for
easy use on a PC.

Be
careful. We recommend checking all potential software out with a set of benchmarks
from standard textbooks. Our software meets the benchmarks and often betters
them. We have copied the benchmarks for you and they are easily accessible from
our Windows software. Please contact us if you want to use the benchmarks for
comparison. If possible, try the benchmarks on software you might buy before
actual purchase to see if the software measures up. You may be surprised to
find out how disappointing some software can be. You will not be disappointed
with our software. It is the world standard for performing Weibull analysis.

General
descriptions follow. Click here for the latest software version numbers
and revision information.

SuperSMITH (TM) is a bundled package of programs from
Fulton Findings^{TM} for reliability and
variability solutions on a personal computer at a discount price. It is a
complete self-study package with SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull and SuperSMITH Visual
and SuperSMITH YBath(TM)
from Fulton Findings LLC, the PlayTIME With SuperSMITH (TM) tutorial and The New Weibull Handbook (NWH) copyrighted 1997 by Dr.
Bob Abernethy. These friendly
stand-alone programs are also available separately to minimize cost. SuperSMITH performs all of the techniques covered in The
New Weibull Handbook. It is the standard for performing Weibull life data
analysis, and is used by thousands of companies worldwide. Recently published
benchmarks indicate SuperSMITH as the only
trustworthy source for best practice solutions to these kind of problems. You
can order this from Dr. Bob Abernethy or Wes Fulton or Paul Barringer as
indicated in E-mail Addresses, Sites and
Telephone #'s. Price and
availability is given on the Main Page.

SuperSMITH^{(R)} Weibull (SSW) software for Windows performs all of the
Weibull techniques in Dr. Abernethy's New Weibull Handbook. SSW contains
results of independent research with several methods developed by Dr. Abernethy
in cooperation with Fulton Findings. Many of these techniques are *not
available elsewhere*, such as likelihood ratio confidence, simplified design
(set) comparison, Kaplan-Meier simulation and solution, critical correlation
coefficient, sudden-death WeiBayes, parameter as a
function of engineering variable, etc. SuperSMITH
Weibull for Windows uses Weibull, Normal or LogNormal
equations. It replaces the DOS program WeibullSMITH^{TM}
and the Windows program SuperSMITH(R) Weibull (SSW),
previously the leading Weibull analysis software programs. You can order this
from Dr. Bob Abernethy or Wes Fulton or Paul Barringer as indicated in E-mail Addresses, Sites and Telephone #'s. Price and availability is given on the Main Page.

SuperSMITH^{(R)} Visual (SSV) software for Windows provides general
scientific plotting. It includes Duane/AMSAA modeling for reliability growth
analysis and it plots probability density functions, cumulative distribution
functions (regular scaling), likelihood contours, least-cost replacement
intervals, failure forecasts, and histograms all from SuperSMITH^{TM}
Weibull files. The likelihood contour comparison capability is *not available
elsewhere*. The program also includes function plots, data transforms
(global edit), and curve fitting as well as XY plots, bar charts and pie
graphs. You can order this from Dr. Bob Abernethy or Wes Fulton or Paul
Barringer as indicated in E-mail Addresses,
Sites and Telephone #'s. Price
and availability is given on the Main Page.

SuperSMITH(R) YBath(TM) for
Windows - Contact Wes Fulton as indicated in E-mail
Addresses, Sites and Telephone #'s
for additional information on YBath bathtub curve
modeling for multiple and mixed failure mechanisms. Both rank regression and
maximum likelihood techniques are now available.

WeibullSMITH ™ (WS) for DOS (no longer available) was
the first commercial PC implementation of Weibull analysis including plotting
and failure forecasting. It was replaced by SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull (SSW) for Windows and finally SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull (SSW). All previous capability plus a lot more is now in SSW.

VisualSMITH ™ (VS) for DOS (no longer available) is
the precursor to SuperSMITH(R) Visual (SSV) and
finally SuperSMITH(R) Visual (SSV). All capability
plus a lot more is now in SSV.

MonteCarloSMITH^{TM} (MC) for DOS (no longer available) is a
research tool available for general use. Regular Monte Carlo simulation and
Monte Carlo confidence is available in SuperSMITH(R)
Weibull. What makes MC special is its ability to create, analyze and store the
data from up to 1000 simulations (up to 1000000 for certain comparisons). This
process provides Monte Carlo estimates of confidence for probability model
parameters such as the mean, standard deviation and 95^{th} percentile
of a normal distribution for example. Weibull, Normal and LogNormal
equations are provided. These techniques, absolutely necessary to remove bias
for small samples, are *not available elsewhere*. The current MC software
is already easy to run in Windows, since graphics are not involved. Please
contact Wes Fulton as indicated in E-mail Addresses, Sites and Telephone
#'s

for more information on Monte Carlo software.

**Weibull
Analysis for Variability Control (including Normal, Lognormal, Exponential,
Gumbel lower and Gumbel higher)**